"Early Warning System Convention"

 

SPECIAL NOTICE #04

OFFICE OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM, COMPOSED BY CORPOGUAJIRA AND COLOMBIAN RED CROSS, SECTIONAL GUAJIRA, TECHNICAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE NEXT CHANCE OF FORMATION OF THE PHENOMENON OF CHILD.

 

For the month of March The Office of Early Warning System of La Guajira (S.A.T.) informs the Departmental Council and Municipal Disaster Risk Management in the Department of La Guajira and general community informed that based on our ongoing monitoring a warning appearance of weak phenomenon is possible during the months of February to April, based on trend analysis conditions increase, Most models indicate that the formation of El Niño continue during the 2015. This is supported by the recent rise in temperature of the subsurface and the model projections on the continuation of abnormalities in mild westerly winds across parts of the equatorial Pacific. However, the skill of the models tend to be lower during the second half of the year, which helps reduce the likelihood of El Niño after that period. In summary, are approximately 50-60 % probability of El Niño conditions continue until mid-year, Therefore, although no inclination to El Niño, the combined atmospheric and oceanic conditions increase.